The real battleground is Hartlepool

...Mr Blair will undoubtedly have something special saved up for his conference speech. He is a gifted speaker, blessed with a biblical mix of modesty and self-belief. But if he fails to win over his audience, the spring wobble that never was may become a very real autumn one.

The real battleground for him, however, is not in Brighton, but Hartlepool, where voters will turn out for a by-election on Thursday. Labour's hold on the seat is under threat from the Liberal Democrats, Britain's third party and the only significant parliamentary opposition to the war in Iraq. Their vote against the invasion now looks like the smartest piece of decision-making in recent British political history.

Opinion polls put them at just a few a few points behind Labour and the Conservatives.

Labour Party workers think that they will hold the seat, but accept the electorate is volatile and could turn nasty. A loss would not be a fatal to Mr Blair but it would underscore the biggest question mark next to his name: Is he still an electoral asset? The next few days, in Brighton and Hartlepool, should go some way to giving the Labour Party an answer.

Sydney Morning Herald